A Bold Move to Broaden Homeownership
In early July 2025, Dubai launched the First-Time Home Buyer programme, designed to help eligible UAE residents, including expats, purchase their first property up to AED 5 million under preferential terms. Benefits include priority access to select off plan launches, extended mortgage tenures through major banks, and waived registration fees when completed digitally. While the program is targeted at end-users stepping into homeownership, its impact is poised to touch the broader real estate
ecosystem.
Demand Shifts and Market Momentum
Dubai’s residential market continues to perform. June alone saw over AED 54 billion in property transactions, up 16 percent year-on-year, with off-plan units accounting for more than half of that volume. The first half of 2025 reached AED 272 billion in total deal value, with Q1 alone delivering AED 115.6 billion in sales, largely driven by off-plan inventory. Developers are expected to deliver 73,000 new homes this year, contributing to a wider pipeline of 300,000 units by 2028.
That said, analysts including Fitch Ratings are forecasting up to a 15 percent price dip later in 2025, as supply begins to outpace demand growth. This is being viewed as a healthy correction rather than a red flag, particularly as investor appetite and banking standards remain strong.
Why Investors Should Pay Attention to the Home Buyer Scheme
Demand is shifting toward quality off-plan projects. The program is channeling qualified buyers toward projects by top-tier developers. Those with a track record of delivering on time and maintaining highquality standards are likely to see higher absorption rates.
Reputation and location matter more than ever. With end-users now gaining early access and better financing terms, projects in prime areas such as JVC, Dubai Hills Estate, Dubai Creek Harbour and Downtown are seeing stronger interest. Apartments continue to dominate transaction volume, but location and finish quality are emerging as decisive factors.
Low price per square foot is no longer enough. While some projects offer aggressive pricing, especially from lesser-known developers, investors are becoming more cautious. Delays in delivery or weak community infrastructure can quickly erase the value of those initial discounts. As the market matures, buyers are seeking value over surface-level affordability.
What This Means for Investors
Now more than ever, working with an experienced advisor can make all the difference. Understanding the true cost of an investment means looking beyond brochure pricing and into developer history, contract terms, and the marketability of the end product.
Choosing the right developer, location, and payment structure is key. Many off-plan buyers are now factoring in delivery timelines, post-handover clauses, and community development when making their decisions. A property may look attractive on paper, but if it struggles to rent or resell when handed over, the numbers no longer add up.
Smart investors are also watching timing. Entering now, while demand is supported and pricing is relatively stable, allows for better selection and more favorable financing before the expected wave of new supply exerts downward pressure on prices.
A Market in Transition
Dubai’s First-Time Home Buyer initiative reflects a broader shift in the market toward stability, quality, and long-term ownership. While the program was designed to empower first-time buyers, it also brings clarity and structure to a market that has, at times, been driven by speculation.
This is a moment of alignment. Investors who move with the market, rather than against it, will be best positioned to take advantage of this maturing cycle. The path forward is not about chasing hype, but about investing with clarity, context, and confidence.
At DEVOSHN Real Estate, we are here to help you do just that. If you’re considering your next move in Dubai’s off-plan landscape, or looking to understand how this initiative fits into your broader investment goals, we would be happy to guide you through it.
Disclaimer: Disclaimer: This article is for general informational purposes and should not be considered as investment advice.